The Coming Storm: Power, Conflict and Warnings from History

A replay of WWI is imminent, according to this troubling rumination from historian Westad (The Great Transformation). He argues that today’s geopolitics resembles that of 1914: China is a modern version of early 20th-century Germany, an upstart elbowing its way into Great Power status; America is the new Great Britain, a declining hegemon increasingly unwilling to pay the price of maintaining its preeminence; and Russia is, like Austria-Hungary, a decrepit empire trying to hold on. Westad gives a recap of 1914 that emphasizes bad choices: a showdown between Austria and Serbia escalated as their sponsors, Germany and Russia, failed to rein them in; rigid alliances brought France in on Russia’s side; Britain failed to clearly declare that it would fight on France’s side, leading Germany to believe the war was winnable; and immediate mobilization left no room for diplomacy. Elsewhere, Westad surveys present-day contested territories that could drag the world into war—Taiwan, Ukraine, Kashmir, Israel-Palestine—and offers policy proposals to avoid that fate, including that America should make clear it will support Taiwan if China attacks. Westad’s retrospective on the run-up to WWI is incisive but his schematic application of it to the present can feel forced, and his downplaying of nuclear weapons as a deterrent doesn’t totally convince. Still, geopolitics wonks will find this worthwhile. (Mar.)