After the Spike: Population, Progress, and the Case for People

As the global population growth rate continues to decline, governments should make concerted efforts to keep population replacement levels steady, according to this stimulating study. Economists and demographers Spears (Where India Goes) and Geruso propose that the world’s population will spike at “10 billion within a few decades” and then will decline precipitously. Depopulation would be disastrous at such a scale—not only for society (historically, a larger population has helped propel progress) but also, the authors intriguingly assert, for the environment. Global depopulation, rather than reduce environmental degradation, would, with a shrinking working-age population, slow down technological progress, raise the fixed costs of doing business, and decrease funding for the very governments and programs that defend the environment. Thus, the authors advocate for a new effort to “stabilize” the global population and for renewed dialogue around birth rates, population decline, and the culture of caretaking. The authors make a strong argument that such a decline really is on the horizon, noting that “nobody fully understands low birth rates,” since many former commonsense explanations like women’s increased participation in the labor force have begun to be dismissed by researchers. Though somewhat dry, this offers important food for thought for those concerned about climate change. (July)

This review has been updated to more accurately describe the authors’ discussion of the causes and solutions for population decline.