The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice

Economist Doleac’s intriguing debut study takes a Freakonomics-style approach to criminal justice reform, presenting counterintuitive data about recidivism that flies in the face of both left and right talking points. Drawing on data from around the globe, Doleac relies on “natural experiments” wherein rollouts of new criminal justice policies or programs can be compared to control groups from nearby districts or prior time periods. Among her findings that will peeve progressives are that DNA databases for violent offenders correlate with a reduction in future convictions, and that removing questions about felony convictions on job applications do little to reduce recidivism and may even increase discrimination against Black convict job seekers. On the other hand, she bolsters some common left-wing assertions about what leads to crime, demonstrating that summer youth employment programs lead to a dramatic reduction in future arrests among participants, that ineligibility for SNAP benefits for convicted felons leads to more crime, and that supervision-intensive probation programs are ineffective at preventing recidivism. (Text reminder systems for court summonses, however, are wildly effective, leading to a significant decrease in “failures to appear” and helping defendants avoid new charges.) Some readers may quibble that her approach lacks sociological nuance, and that she sometimes seems to extrapolate a great deal from scant evidence. Still, it’s a persuasive argument that “evidence-based” approaches ought to be incorporated into the criminal justice reform movement. (Feb.)