How Progress Ends: Technology, Innovation, and the Fate of Nations

Technological advancement stagnates when met with bureaucratic sclerosis and corporate monopoly, according to this probing study from Oxford economic historian Frey (The Technology Trap). From early civilizations to the modern era, Frey examines countervailing systems for nurturing technological progress. One is a centralized state that imposes change from the top—like ancient China, which developed cast iron, printing, and other technologies long before Europe did. The other is a decentralized system that encourages exploration—as in the U.S. from the Industrial Revolution onward—where inventors can find private and public investors to fund long-shot experiments. Moving to the present, Frey argues that Silicon Valley dominated the digital age through its startup and venture capital symbiosis, and China became an industrial behemoth with a hybrid of capitalist firms and a strong state. He’s pessimistic about the future prospects for innovation in both countries, however: China’s drift to more rigid centralization bodes ill, and America seems ever more dominated by corporate oligarchs who would rather stifle competition than invest in research and development. AI, as a result, is better at regurgitating existing knowledge than creating breakthroughs, Frey points out. His broad yet deep survey of technology ranges across many nations and centuries, and pokes insightfully into myriad subjects, from Carolingian feudalism to patent law. The result is an incisive and stimulating consideration of a critical issue. (Sept.)