Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse

Throughout human history, the breakdown of societies has been caused by out-of-control oligarchy, according to this brilliant and unnerving debut from economist and geographer Kemp. Looking back to prehistory, Kemp notes that hunter-gatherer social structures had the flexibility to “break apart and come back together” as environmental needs dictated. However, the transition to agriculture, Kemp contends, led to an almost instantly degraded quality of life as most people had to begin working against their will for others (“a telltale sign” of the transition to agriculture is “deformed bones in the knees and toes of women” due to hours spent grinding grain). As soon as evidence of profound inequality emerges in the historical record, Kemp writes, so does evidence of revolt. For example, Catalhoyuk in modern-day Turkey—a densely inhabited prehistoric megacity—began to empty out very quickly after archaeological evidence indicates the presence of a new elite. Kemp traces this same process among the Mayans, the ancient Romans, and beyond, delineating a process he calls “diminishing returns on extraction”: over time, a society’s elites, while competing for “a limited number of high status positions,” create increased political instability through coups, rebellions, mismanagement of natural resources, and an inability to respond to environmental problems. Pointing to modern elites’ failure to address climate change, Kemp offers a Cassandra-like warning about the path today’s oligarchs have set. It adds up to a sweeping and dire vision of a world on the brink. (Sept.)